Of course he is…almost always. Especially in the short-term, under 3 days. There’s almost a 100% chance the temperature outside right now is within 2 degrees F which was predicted 24 hours ago. Think about this. Outside of celestial movement and tides and such, almost nothing is as certain as the near-term weather. Yet, we hang on to the story and resulting culture from the early Farmer’s Almanac days when the weather was largely unpredictable and changed radically every five minutes (if you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes). And every once in a while the weather doesn’t turn out today as it was predicted yesterday (everyday somewhere, but almost never in your town). So we add that to the lore…and the ratchet continues. Plus, it’s more fun and perhaps interesting to dramatize one time failures than provable statistical outcomes…how boring.
What other stories are we telling ourselves which are based on outdated and unsupportable theories? The purpose of standardized education, the value of meetings, the role of placebos, the effectiveness of advertising…a few to consider.
Choose your stories wisely.